Posts tagged: featured
The Central Limit Theorem: Why Averages Behave
Individual observations can follow nearly any distribution. Average enough of them together, and the result converges toward normal. Here's why that happens and why it matters.
Regression to the Mean: Why Exceptional Performance Doesn't Last
Extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more ordinary ones. This is not a psychological phenomenon. It is a mathematical one, with real implications for how we evaluate causes and interventions.
What Confidence Intervals Actually Tell You
A 95% confidence interval does not mean a 95% probability that the true value is inside it. Here is what the statement actually means, and why the distinction is worth getting right.
The Base Rate Fallacy: When a Positive Test Isn't Good Evidence
A 99% accurate test for a rare condition still leaves you more likely than not to be healthy after a positive result. Bayes' theorem explains why the prior matters.
Correlation Is Not Causation, Illustrated With Cat Food
A study shows premium cat food extends feline life. It probably doesn't. A walkthrough of confounders, causal DAGs, and collider bias: the machinery behind each illusion.