Posts tagged: conditional probability
The Monty Hall Problem: Why You Should Always Switch
The conditional probability problem that has produced more confident wrong answers than almost any other. The correct answer is 2/3, and the host's knowledge is why.
The Base Rate Fallacy: When a Positive Test Isn't Good Evidence
A 99% accurate test for a rare condition still leaves you more likely than not to be healthy after a positive result. Bayes' theorem explains why the prior matters.